Anytime we are faced with a decision that produces an uncertain future; we can ask our brain trust of associates:
“If this event fails, what will be the reason?”
Forcing everyone to predict and creatively kill the event before it even begins produces incredible insight.
And from that insight can come incredible contingency planning to prevent the failure.
Nothing says success like killing your project before even starting it, right?
Picture this:
- You assemble your brain trust around the table to launch your next, big initiative. Saving the rain forest, responding to a disaster, overhauling the tax code, whatever.
- You – as the mindful leader – offer your high-level view of the HOW, the WHY, the WHEN, etc. And then you ask for and receive thunderous support.
- Sometime later everyone is seated at the same table, head in hands, trying to figure out why the initiative failed so spectacularly.
Then “Jason” pipes up from the back of the room:
“well, I could have told you THAT was going to happen!”
Grrr.
The Project Premortem provides a simple way to avoid thumping “Jason” in the head.
Unlike the postmortem exam we perform on dead people and things to figure out how they died, a premortem is, you guessed it, just the opposite.
Now, picture this:
- Same meeting, same project, same people (including “Jason”).
- You – the mindful leader – after delivering the project overview ask:
“If this project fails, what will be the reason?”
“Now pair up, take 5 minutes and report your findings.”
This query provides “Jason’s” moment to shine:
“It will fail because nobody is using a VHS player anymore, duh!” (or similar insight, of course)
Voilà.
Now you have more insight and forecasting from a collective brain trust by which you can make a more informed decision and reduce the chance of project failure.
So, when you can ask “Can everyone support this plan?” You’ll get informed nods in return.
Premeditatio Malorum
One piece of interesting backstory is how some of the Stoic philosophers (Marcus Aurelius, Seneca, and Epictetus) also practiced pre-mortems.
- Except they called them “premeditatio malorum,” which translates to a “premeditation of evils.”
Similarly, a strategy of inversion or starting at the opposite end was embraced by the German mathematician Carl Jacobi.
- He used the mindset of “man muss immer umkehren” or, “invert, always invert” to solve vexing problems.
Aside from the history lesson, how does this help a leader in the heat of a battle?
- By understanding and equipping ourselves with this pre-mortem, inversion strategy, we can better avoid friction and failure.
Here’s an example from a recent conversation with my son:
Me: “What would make Mom upset?”
Son: “Leaving my socks and shoes on the floor in the living room.”
Me: (waits for that pre-mortem to settle in)
Son: Picks up shoes and socks.
From a more risk intensive environment, like a disaster response:
Example:
Crisis Response Leader #1: “What would make the conditions for our disaster victims worse?”
Crisis Response Leader #2: “Taking them from their damaged home (bad place) and putting them on an unsheltered overpass with no food, water, or hygiene facility (worse place).”
Crisis Response Leader #1: “Right. Let’s make sure if we move them that it’s a move to a better place, not to a worse place.”
From a more static environment inside an organization:
“What would an arrogant supervisor do in this situation?”
(Hint: do the inverse!)
Inverting the problem, killing it in advance, premeditating evil or simply beginning with the end in mind all are hallmarks of a world-class Crisis Response Leader.