We plan in the sunshine to operate in the storm. What storms lie ahead?
“One of the true tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency.” ~ Arnold H. Glasow
After 20+ years of responding to natural and human-made disruptions (tornadoes, hurricanes, murders, suicides, crime scenes, etc.) a few common traits emerged among leaders I’ve worked with:
We’re all imperfect people ...
performing an imperfect task ...
in an imperfect environment.
Achieving a perfect result is unlikely.
~ Mike McKenna
We’re all imperfect people, performing an imperfect task, in an imperfect environment. Achieving a perfect result is unlikely. ~ Mike McKenna
Therefore, expecting perfection under these conditions is a fool’s game.
So, by knowing that our event (planned or unplanned) will be imperfect, we can more readily embrace the need to anticipate and address what can and will go wrong.
It bears repeating:
“If it’s predictable, it’s preventable.”
What about the “worst case scenario”? These catastrophes are what inspire the news headlines:
"the world is ending"
"the stock market is crashing"
"the people are dying from poison"
However, most assume that “it can never happen to me” because that scenario is unlikely.
Worst case though is about consequence, not probability.
Therefore, planning must include both consequence AND probability.
Proportional Risk Management
If you’ve been following my work for any length of time you’ve likely heard me grouse about "proportional risk management," i.e., keeping your risk proportional to the reward or upside of the activity.
- Not surprisingly, most of us are addressing the wrong thing, and as a result, our actual risk doesn't go down at all. Oops.
In his short video called “What Kills Us? How We Understand Risk,” Dr. Aaron E. Carroll of Healthcare Triage illustrates these irrational approaches perfectly.
Example (from the video):
In 2001 the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) promoted a policy that all children under the age of two must sit in a safety seat while traveling in an airplane. The existing policy allows young children to ride on a parent’s lap. The AAP policy would require purchasing a separate seat for the child instead and require the logistics of traveling with a child safety seat.
When researchers studied the impact of the policy more closely, they determined that:
Using an ill-informed and fear-based policy to push children from a better place (less-risky airplane sitting in a parent’s lap) to a worse place (more-risky ground transportation) fails to consider consequence and probability.
More data from Dr. Carroll:
Information is available to develop risk reduction strategies; we just have to be willing to look through its imperfections and take action.
Now, let’s look more closely at risk for strategies to be less imperfect.